Baseball for April 23, 2006

Inside Baseball

Inside Baseball this week:

Ophelia
Bredesen, the Verb
Bryson Staffs Up
On the Trail

It is indeed an honor to be a part of Tennessee Politics Blog. I am very grateful to Adam Groves for allowing me to join in this exciting project. Inside Baseball will be a decidely conservative column but all political persuasions are welcome. I promise to provide thoughtful and constructive analysis and I hope you will feel free to chime in at your pleasure. Here we go.

Ophelia

The State Senate finally voided Ophelia Ford's election to that body in a convincing bipartisan vote. This is an important moment in Tennessee political history and not for the reasons you might think, namely the Ford family finally getting caught with their hand in the cookie jar.

A federal judge blocked a similar vote in January despite the Senate's explicit constitutional authority to overturn the election. It is important for the Tennessee Legislature to stand up to federal courts that have been governing the state by fiat. It has happened with prisons, education, healthcare, children's services and election law, among others. There are few agencies of state government that aren't under some form of federal court order. If federal courts want to stand in the way of the legislature's legitimate constitutional functions, then let them enforce the order.

More important than that is the dilution of votes that are attendant to voter fraud. People who go to the trouble to cast an informed ballot deserve to have their full vote counted. When an illegal vote is cast, by a living person or otherwise, every other vote is cheapened. If we are to have "one man/woman, one vote" as we should, only living, breathing residents of the district should have their votes counted.

Ophelia Ford has not seen the last of the State Senate. If she's smart, she'll drop this charade and win her election - honestly - in November and continue on in the family business.

Bredesen, the Verb

Bred-e-sen (v.) - to tell one's audience what they want to hear about a particular issue, regardless of one's true feelings on such issue. Specifically: to do so in a political context. Example: Phil will often bredesen business groups when speaking about issues important to them.

For the second time in as many months, Phil Bredesen has flip-flopped on a bill that is being closely watched by the business community that the Governor has so famously claimed to represent. The bills would raise the state's minimum wage and impose stiff penalties on business that pay different wages for men and women. For the purposes of this column, we'll set aside the merits and demerits of the bills and focus only on Bredesen's handling of them.

In both cases Bredesen feigned opposition to the bills in front of crowds of businesspeople who are lobbying hard against each bill. In both cases House Democratic Leader Kim McMillan, who sponsors both bills, whipped the Governor into shape and now he's towing the party line.

This circumstance begs a couple of questions. First, does Phil Bredesen just pop off at the mouth about legislation he hasn't read or doesn't understand? Second, does he just say what he thinks his audience wants to hear, be it the Chamber of Commerce or be it Kim McMillan. Either way, it hardly inspires confidence in Bredesen's heralded management style.

Bryson Staffs Up

Jim Bryson's campaign has a manager, and a very good one at that. Gregory Gleaves comes to the campaign after spending most of his adult life winning campaigns that appeared to be anything but winable. Gleaves, along with Matt King and Lance Frizzell, pulled off several legislative upsets in 2002 as part of the political department at the Tennessee Republican Party. He followed that up by engineering victories for State Senators Diane Black and Jim Tracy, giving Republicans an elected majority in the legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. Gleaves knows Tennessee inside and out. He knows how to energize a base and get them organized. And he knows how to do it when the deck is stacked against him. Sounds like a good skill set for this race.

On the Trail

On the Trail will be a regular feature of my Inside Baseball columns where I will highlight some of the key races for the General Assembly. Political junkies will doubtless be transfixed by Tennessee's races for the US Senate and Governor, but there are going to be several races for the General Assembly that have the potential to transform the political landscape in addition to being fun to watch. For research in this endeavor I'm going to rely heavily on Battle for the General Assembly, an invaluable website offered by TPB and TennesseeTicket.com. If you are a candidate or someone working with a candidate, please feel free to get me some information about your race and I'll do my best to cover it. You can reach me at matthew(dot)s(dot)white(at)gmail(dot)com. And without further ado, the first installment of On the Trail.

State Senate - 23rd District (Williamson and Davidson, in part)

Watching a crowded primary unfold is not unlike watching a crowd of trains on a collision course. In the case of the 23rd Senate distict, there are six GOP locomotives on a track with only one destination. It is almost impossible to predict what will happen with such a crowded field, but incumbent Jim Bryson -- who is vacating the seat to run for Governor -- provided a blueprint for the candidates. Bryson's entire margin of victory in 2002 came from the Davidson County portion of the district that makes up about 23% of the total vote. The strategy for the candidates will be to keep it very close in Williamson and create a margin in Davidson. With four candidates from Williamson and two from Davidson, there is a slight mathematical advantage for the candidates from Davidson.

The Candidates

Bob Barnwell - Currently a member of the Williamson County Commission and has been active in Republican politics for quite a while. He is fairly well known in GOP circles but may find it difficult to raise money.

Jeff Ford - A four year veteran of the Williamson County Commission, Ford works for a healthcare software company. Sources tell me that he would be a reliable conservative vote in the State Senate. Like Barnwell, his ability to raise the money necessary to raise his name ID is unknown.

Jack Johnson - Johnson is a financial advisor with a growing local bank by day and Republican super-activist by night, by weekend and very often during the day, as well. He lives in Brentwood and has been active in the Williamson and Davidson County parties. He has the best fundraising rolodex in the race and a slew of poltical connections to help implement his ground game.

Tom Neill - Neill is not as well-known as some of the other candidates, but he has deep pockets and that can buy name identification. He is a retired HCA executive and longtime Williamson County resident. Sources wonder if Neill will do a lot of the retail politics that are essential to winning a race like this.

Andy Ogles - Ogles runs a very popular doughnut shop/meat and three restaurant in Franklin. He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in the Fourth Congressional district in 2002. Ogles is well-known and generally well-liked among Republicans in the district. TeamGOP reports that he has retained Raymond Baker as his campaign consultant which means bombs will be lobbed from his camp. Baker's famously negative campaigns won't play well in this race.

Chip Throckmorton - He currently serves as the Mayor of Oak Hill, a satellite city of Nashville. But he may not be Mayor for long. He has decided to concurrently run for his mayoral seat and the State Senate. Many constituents are wondering where his loyalties lie -- does he want to be a Mayor in Davidson County or a State Senator from Williamson County, as he is casting himself? Throckmorton is also caught in a rift with some Oak Hill residents over the propsed construction of a football stadium at Father Ryan High School. Discontent like this can cut into his geographic base and he can ill afford that in a race that will be as close as this one. He also runs the risk of alienating some GOP primary voters by virtue of his profession -- trial lawyer. Fairly or not, that won't play well with the base.

The D's

Former State Democratic Party Chairman Randy Button made some waves by showing some interest in this race. That certainly would have been entertaining to see. He decided against it, leaving Mary Parker as the Democratic standardbearer. This district is one of the most strongly Republican in the state so winning the GOP's primary is tantamount to victory in November.

My Choice

Jack Johnson - Not only do I think Jack Johnson will win. I hope he does. Rarely do people with Jack's measure of sincerity, intelligence and accomplishment seek public office. The 23rd was fortunate to have Jim Bryson for the last four years and Johnson is cut out of the same mold. No one in this race has done more to build the Republican Party than Johnson, as evidenced by the Bush campaign's choice to head up the re-election effort in Davidson County. That man's name is Jack Johnson. His district contacts range from Spring Hill to Oak Hill, Fairview to Nolensivlle. He can - and will - raise the money to run a good race and few people know how to organize a campaign better than Johnson. More than that, he will be a superb State Senator not only for his district, but for the entire state.

Posted by Matthew White | Email This |