Analysis for October 12, 2006

Analysis: The Coming Constitutional Crisis

A storm is a brewing on a key constitutional question following the 2007 elections in the state of Tennessee and it's probably something you've never even heard of. Assuming that Republicans can hold on to all of their seats in the State House and State Senate, and they pick up the two seats that they are projected to (see below), the number of Republicans in the state legislature will exactly equal the number of Democrats.

That's not particularly interesting for anything other than trivia, because the State House will still be controlled by Democrats and the State Senate will still be controlled by Republicans, but there's more. Under state law, the combined General Assembly appoints the state comptroller, treasurer and secretary of state as well as the election commissioners for all of Tennessee's 95 counties. With an even split between Republicans and Democrats, there could be huge fighting at the beginning of the General Assembly as Republicans try to wrestle away control of these appointed positions from Democrats who have held them for over 100 years.

There is no provision in state law or otherwise that would indicate what the General Assembly would do with a split vote on these constitutional officers. Defections among Republicans - especially Mike Williams in the State Senate - could make the point moot and leave control of the appointments in the hands of the Democrats at least for now. But if Republicans are able to hold the reins of their individual members, the General Assembly will likely have to craft a law to deal with the appointment process.

I have heard legislative leaders are already working on a possible solution whereby county appointed positions would be filled by whatever party had the majority of that county's legislative delegation. But then there is question about how to divide the appointments for the statewide positions. A compromise could hand the Democrats two out of the three appointed statewide positions, with Republicans eager for one appointment -- but would that be Secretary of State, the most powerful of the appointed positions? Not likely given that for the most part the Democrats are still the party with the best cards to play.

How the new legislative delegation plans to handle their first order of business following signing in will largely determine how rancorous the coming legislative session will be. Commentators called the last legislative session the most partisan they had ever experienced. With Republicans nipping at the heels of control of state government and getting even closer in this session - you can bet it will be worse. If rumors are true that John Wilder will retire as soon as he's voted off the rostrum as Lt. Governor - and Steve Cohen wins his Congressional race, opening up a State Senate seat where many commentators say Republicans have a real shot in a special election, imagine how heated it will become.

Posted by Adam Groves | Email This |