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I'd say Lowe Finney has an edge in the West Tennessee Senate race. Having spent much of the summer out there, I can personally say Finney has raised a lot of money and campaigned hard in that predominantly democratic district. In fact, judging by Finney's groundwork this summer, I'd be kind of shocked in all honesty if McLeary wins.
Posted by: Chris Brown | October 12, 2006 02:00 PM
Republican state Senator Bill Ketron and other Republicans voted for Gov. Bredesen's driving certificates plan for illegal aliens, because the choice came down to the certificates or allowing illegal aliens to continue to get regular driver's licenses in Tennessee. The Democratic majority, including Bredesen, refused to support the Republican bills, sponsored by Ketron and others, to do away with all driving privileges for illegals and return to pre-2001 DL policy.
Ketron has apoligized for voting for the certificates, but he SHOULD NOT apologize. Tennesseans for Immigration Control also backed the compromise when it became clear we couldn't get the full return to pre-2001 DL policy. The driving certificates were a compromise the sane in this state had to swallow, because the insane were and are running this state.
You can change that by voting Republican for state offices.
Posted by: Donna Locke | October 12, 2006 02:41 PM
Great breakdown. I think Rowland, Beavers and Hill are doing much better and are leading in each of their respective races. Democrats will probably lose House District 11 where the democrat incumbent is falling farther and farther behind in a heavy republican district.
In summary, the legislative races in Tennessee show republicans holding a commanding 18 to 15 lead in State Senate. With the eventual removal from office of Bowers, Crutchfield and Cooper republicans may be at 19 to 14 by May of 2007.
Republicans should pick up 1 to 4 state house seats. I would predict that republicans net 2 seat gain in Tennessee House.
It may be a great year for republicans in the state legislature. I don't like to think about the national picture.
Posted by: Has Been | October 12, 2006 02:49 PM
Just a little FYI, but Schree Pettigrew's name is spelled S-C-H-R-E-E. Oh, and by the way, the issuehas nothing to do with Stacey's blog. The issue is that Stacey has done not a thing for the people of the district besides being an embarrassment. He hasn't passed a single bill. He's voted against education, against fiscally responsible budgets, against health care.
Posted by: Tennessee Liberal | October 12, 2006 11:40 PM
How does the most recent finacial disclosures factor into your analysis?
Posted by: TNHegemon | October 13, 2006 08:14 AM
I don't know who came up with that chart but Matthew Hill has never been re-elected. This is his first time.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 13, 2006 11:11 AM
Adam, you may have internal polling data that says otherwise. But M Lee Smith said in his newsletter that the only toss ups are the Beavers,Mathew Hill and Kim McMillians open seat races.
Posted by: anon | October 13, 2006 12:59 PM
Sorry to all the people that commented on this post but were not viewable before. Something in my spam filter caught these posts. I have corrected a few items that you have pointed out. Thanks.
Posted by: Adam | October 13, 2006 04:32 PM
The Democrat leadership despises Campfield's blog because it allows those pesky voters to know what's going on before the information is sanitized. That is why they're targeting him.
Any news on the Phillip Johnson/Bruce Gibbs state house race in Cheatham County?
Posted by: Whitehorse | October 15, 2006 09:14 PM
I've been impressed with Pettigrew. She's intelligent and articulate. She seems to have values and some good ideas. I hope she wins--she's got my vote!
Posted by: J. Jackson | October 15, 2006 10:54 PM
I agree with Donna Locke, I believe the GOP will continue to hold the State Senate but not gain control of the State House, I was in Clarksville the other day and yes McMillans seat is going to change for the GOP and Yokely(I think that is his name) in East Tennessee might go down as well, but I also agree Campfield is toast. AS for the big 3. Ketron wins big, Beavers pulls out her win only because the district has changed on Rochelle had it not been for that Rochelle would have been the winner and I can't call a winner between Finney and Mcleary but I don't see the Dems winning the state Senate or the Republicans winning the State house. AS for the National picture, Dems win majority of Governorships and win the control of the U.S. House but fall short in the U.S. Senate because of New Jersey and Ct. changing from Democrat
Posted by: Michael | October 17, 2006 01:53 PM
You may want to watch the race in West Tennessee between Mark Maddox and David Hawks. Maddox only won last election by something like 3200 votes. David Hawks is a very well respected man in this district and is fighting a really hard campaign. He seems to have his feet on solid ground, as compared to Maddox never showing up to vote on issues that are important to his constituents. This could be a very tight race.
Posted by: Jersim1 | October 20, 2006 07:40 AM
I am pretty confident and hopeful that Matthew Hill will be defeated, but we'll see.
Posted by: Jay | November 4, 2006 11:22 PM
Too bad everyone has written off my campaign against Representative Mary Pruitt, the legislator who takes PAC and Special Interest money from title loan companies and booze makers. (You know... the same companies that make a profit from keeping poor people poor.)
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November 7, 2006 12:20 PM
Tennessee Legislature for October 12, 2006
Key Legislative Races
| Democrat | Republican | |
| State Senate | ||
| Bob Rochelle | Mae Beavers* | |
| Too close to call. Despite Rochelle's record as the chief architect of an unpopular plan several years ago to institute a state income tax, voters still recognize the longtime Senator's name - and Democratic and Republican officials alike have been injecting lots of money in this race - a good indication that both may be worried about the potential outcome. Exemplifying the rancor, the Republican State Legislative Committee recently put out an ad calling Rochelle "the prince of darkness" and Rochelle produced an ad calling Beavers a criminal. | ||
| Lowe Finney | Don McCleary* | |
| Leans Republican Retention. State Sen. Don McLeary shocked many political observers when he switched political parties during the last legislative session. That caused the TN Democratic Party to recruit a candidate for an all out of offensive to take back the seat. Lowe Finney has a chance to unseat the Republican incumbent in this West Tennessee Senate district, but most insiders close to the race think that Republican McLeary will hold on to his supporters and hold on to the seat. | ||
| Vince Springer | Bill Kentron* | |
| Leans Republican Retention. Illegal immigration is a key issue in the race. Springer has used his political capital to push the reminder that Bill Kentron sponsored the bill that eventually lead to illegal immigrants getting temporary driver's licenses in Tennessee. However, Kentron has also emphasized also introduced a bill requiring a Social Security number to get a driver's license and two forms of identification to get car tags - muddling the issue. He should be able to hold on to his seat. | ||
| State House | ||
| Bob Bibb | Joshua Evans | |
| Leans Republican Pick-up. Winner of this race will replace Gene Davidson (D). Joshua Evans first beat a hand-picked candidate in the GOP primary and will now likely go on to victory in Robertson County. Evan's opponent Bob Bibb, a Middle Tennessee Industrial Development Association executive, has failed to capitalize on his experience with economic development being a key issue and Evans has done a good job emphasizing values issues that matter in the mostly rural district. | ||
| Joe Pitts | Ken Takasaki | |
| Leans Republican Pick-up. The winner of this race will replace House Majority Leader Kim McMillan (D), so it's a huge race for state Democrats, but Clarksville City Councilman Ken Takasaki has mounted an incredible grassroots effort that the combined fundraising efforts of McMillan and former Gov. Ned McWhorter can't match. Pitts has mounted a last minute direct mail campaign to try to make up ground, but it is likely that the Republicans will pick up the seat formerly occupied by the Democratic leader in the House. | ||
| Fred Phillips | Matthew Hill* | |
| Too close to call. Shortly after State Rep. Matthew Hill won last cycle, a couple of whisper campaign blogs popped up critical of him. Hill's challenger this time is no political lightweight. Fred Phillips has been a leader in Democratic politics for years, serving in the Bredesen administration most recently. However, Phillips role in the Highway Patrol controversy has plagued his campaign after he was fired as Commissioner of Safety. Now, the same Governor the fired him will be campaigning on his behalf. | ||
| Schree Pettigrew | Stacey Campfield* | |
| Too close to call. Stacey Campfield has made a name for himself as the only legislator to have a blog to communicate with his constituents in the conservative East Tennessee district that he represents. The blog, though, has drawn the ire of the House Democratic leadership in Nashville and they recruited a young former College Democrat Schree Pettigrew to run against him. Pettigrew wouldn't have a chance in the Knoxville district Campfield represents if it weren't for still bitter feelings on the part of many more moderate Republicans in the area. After Campfield trouced primary challenger Gary Drinnen, most pundits assumed the race was over - but Democrats have injected tons of money into the race and moderate Republicans may be tempted to vote for a Democrat. | ||
| Mary Ester Bell | Donna Rowland* | |
| Too close to call. Incumbent Republican Donna Rowland faces a serious challenge from Mary Ester Bell, in the moderate 34th House district. Bell has been criticizing Rowland for voting against Governor Bredesen's plan to expand pre-K education. Bell's talking point is that she would be an independent voice in the State House, rather than a rubber stamp for the GOP - a line that has also worked well for Democratic standard-bearer Harold Ford, Jr. | ||
| Kent Coleman* | Oscar Gardner | |
| Leans Democratic Retention. Kent Coleman should be able to hold on to his seat against Oscar Gardner, who ran against him last cycle, despite an injection of campaign money and resources from the State GOP. | ||
Drinnen lost the Primary race with Campfield because he didn't take Campfield to task on his record. Schree is doing that, effectively. That is why Schree will win this race.
Posted by: JustJohnny | October 12, 2006 12:40 PM