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Thanks, Bill. I knew something about my math seemed wrong. I've corrected the article.
Posted by: Adam | November 10, 2006 09:41 AM
How long can Cohen hold on to his state Senate seat? When does Congress go back into session? Will that be before or after the state Senate votes for Wilder, etc.
Timing will be interesting.
Can the Shelby County Commission designate Cohen's replacement before he officially resigns his state Senate seat?
Posted by: Bill Hobbs | November 10, 2006 09:56 AM
Another question: If the Shelby County Commission appoints a Republican to fill Cohen's seat, and then Ramsey wins over Wilder, and then a special election for Cohen's seat results in a Democrat, do they have to automatically hold another leadership election - or is Ramsey the leader through the rest of the session or even the rest of the two-year General Assembly?
It's a good question from the opposite direction as well, since Wilder could win the leadership race, and then Cooper or Crutchfield could exit the GA due to the criminal cases they're involved in, and perhaps be replaced by a Republican.
Posted by: Bill Hobbs | November 10, 2006 09:59 AM
My 2-Cents on the State Senate:
As of Sept. 1, the Shelby County Commission no longer has a Republican majority. It's 7-6 Dem and thus highly unlikely that it would appoint a Rep as interim Senator in Cohen's heavily Dem district, pending a special election.
I may be wrong, but I think the U.S. Congress convenes before the General Assembly, meaning that Cohen would presumably resign before the vote on Speaker. The same situation arose a few years ago when Lincoln Davis was elected to Congress.
And once a Speaker is elected, I believe that is set for two years. Just in the last General Assembly, the Senate lost several Dems throughout the two years (McLeary, Ford), but the Speakership never changed.
Posted by: John | November 10, 2006 10:17 AM
In that case, I hope the state Senate holds its leadership election after Cohen resigns, but before his replacement is appointed. It would be most interesting to see a 16-16 tie (if Williams votes for Wilder again).
Posted by: Bill Hobbs | November 10, 2006 11:49 AM
I believe John is right on all counts. The speaker definitely gets two year terms - and I believe Congress convenes before the General Assembly, so Cohen must resign his seat.
The 16-16 tie seems plausible, but I think the Shelby Co Commission will more than likely just replace a Democratic replacement - there would be pressure for them to do so regardless of whether the GOP or Dems controlled the Commission anyway.
Posted by: Adam | November 10, 2006 11:58 AM
Yes, John is correct, and I can assure you that anyone the Shelby County Commission appoints would A) be a Democrat that B) will vote FOR Wilder.
So, say hello to INDEPENDENT Senator Mike Williams and Lt. Governor John Wilder.
Posted by: LeftWingCracker | November 10, 2006 02:16 PM
My impression is that Williams is a closet Dem. and is using this stunt for personal political gain.
If Williams received party aid yet can't bring himself to vote for the interest of the party then what does he expect?
"If I have to be Independent to do what's best for this state and my constituents, I'll do it," Williams said.
Fine, then run as an independent next time.
Posted by: Rick Forman | November 11, 2006 09:31 AM
Daily Dose for November 10, 2006
Daily Dose
Williams May Switch Indy -- Both the Chattanooga Times Free Press and Knoxville News-Sentinel have stories on Michael Williams as the balancing figure in who will be the state's new Lt. Governor. Williams says he is now considering leaving the Republican Party after GOP Chairman Bob Davis said Williams had some "soul searching" on who he would vote for for Lt. Governor. Ed Cromer, noted political commentator, says Williams is not likely to come back to the GOP fold since Republicans are already upset with him. Ron Ramsey, the GOP nominee said, "If he does not vote for me this time, there will be a lot of Republicans across the state who will be very upset."
Cohen's Seat Could Make It More Interesting -- Much has been made about how the State Senate would be split if Michael Williams switched parties. That would give the Republicans 16 seats, Democrats 16 seats, and one Indepedent, but one of those Democrats is heading to Congress. State Sen. Steve Cohen was elected to Congress earlier this week and will move to Washington in January for his first session in Congress. That's the same time that the General Assembly is getting started. Eventually there will be a special election to fill Cohen's seat, but that could take several months to organize and so far the Governor has not ordered a special election. Another possibility is for the Shelby Co. Commission to appoint a replacement representative for Cohen. Republicans control in the Shelby Co. Commission and could appoint one from their party to take Cohen's seat while a special election is being organized. That would give Ramsey the 17 votes he needs to be Lt. Governor, even if Williams votes with the Democrats. It's an interesting scenerio sure to put pressure on Williams to come back into the fold.
What Will Ford Do Now? -- The Memphis Commercial Appeal seems to think there is something to the rumor floating around that Ford will become a pundit on a cable news program, while quoting Charlie Cook as saying he would be "flabbergasted" if Ford tried to repeat his Senate bid against Lamar Alexander in 2008.
If the Shelby County Commission replaces Cohen with a Republican, it doesn't matter how Williams votes as Ramsey would still have his 17 votes.
Posted by: Bill Hobbs | November 10, 2006 09:22 AM